Posts Tagged ‘Randy Wolf’

Questions Without Actual Answers Yet

Sunday, April 4th, 2010

It’s the eve before opening day and this year, there are still some important questions with the Brewers team that will need to be figured out quickly:

1) Why are the Brewers commited to starting Suppan?
The news that Parra and Narveson are both being sent to the bullpen wasn’t the bad news…the bad news was that the Brewers are still holding a starting spot for Jeff Suppan for no other reason than “We’re paying him a ton of money” and “He hasn’t pitched out the pen in a long time.” I have a question to go with my first question…Where did your stones go, Brewers organization?

From Major League 2..."You have no marbles!"

2)  Which outfielder is going to divide the fans most? Hart? Edmonds? or Gomez?
From what I’ve noticed, there are many Brewers fans that are fed up with Corey Hart already BUT he still has a loyal following. There’s another group of fans that hate Jimmy Ballgame and feel he’ll be taking valuable at bats from younger players BUT his spring training performance has turned many over to his side. There’s yet another group that hates Gomez and his lack of power BUT there are many people excited for his speed and good performance in spring. So which outfielder is going to divide fans the most? It depends on whichever one does the worst.

3) Will the new starters be better than the old starters?
This one has an answer…sort of…and the answer is “They better not be any worse”. Most preseason predictions I’ve seen has Randy Wolf regressing this year and Doug Davis will always give up some home runs, it’s just a matter of keeping the number down. I believe Bush will be better this year and Yo will be stellar as usual. That fifth spot is concerning

4) Will LaTroy Hawkins be more like Guillermo Mota or Salomon Torres?
All three pitchers were former closers, so where will Hawkins fall? He can still dial it up over 90 and has looked alright so far.

5) Will George Kottaras walk to the mound a lot?
While at the spring training game on Friday, I noticed that George really wanted to be on the same page with his pitchers and walked to have a talk with each pitcher multiple times. It worked, because there were no runs earned by the bullpen! Is he really going to do that during the season? Don’t fix what isn’t broken, George.

6) Is this the year for Rickie Weeks?
If he can stay healthy? Why not?!?!? I still have faith in the guy.

7) Will Macha run with this team?
Not just make a run, but actually steal bases and move runners. There’s so much speed on this team, it’s ridiculous. The 2005 White Sox think this team has a ton of speed, but will that speed turn into production on both sides?

8) When will the Narv-Dog get a legit chance at being a starter?
Not soon enough apparently. I really believe that if you make someone a reliever at the beginning of the year and try to make him a starter later that same year, it won’t work. When has it worked? I can’t think of anyone right now…

The Narv-Dog

9) Who will be the surprise player to step up this year?
Last year it was Casey, before that it was Gabe Kapler. Will Gomez step up? Will Casey prove his doubters wrong AGAIN? Will it be Rickie or even Jody Gerut? Perhaps it will be a pitcher…maybe Parra will take the next step. Perhaps it will be a surprise addition. Maybe it will be a call-up from Nashville…

10) Will this team make the playoffs?
Well, if you believe SI or ESPN, no. They have the Brewers finishing fourth behind the Cards, Cubs, and Reds. And it’s easy to be skeptical after the downer that was last  year, with Macha having his first losing season as a manager. However, I like when the Brewers fly under the radar and I believe this team will be playing meaningful ball looooong into the season.

Now it’s your turn…answer my questions if you can or post your own

Randy Wolf Reportedly Signs; So does Reliever Hawkins

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

The JSOnline poster apparently got it right this weekend…The Brewers reportedly came to an agreement with the 33 year old lefty for  3 year, $29.75 Million with a 10 million option for a 4th year.

To be honest, this isn’t exciting but it’s better than nothing and it’s better than a lot of the choices out there. The Brewers signed a guy who has been mediocre since 2002, has a great year pitching in the cavern that is Dodger stadium in a contract year, and finally pitches over 200 innings for the first time in 6 years. It doesn’t inspire confidence that he will help right the pitching ship, but that’s why the Brewers got Rick Peterson, right? At least Wolf’s career OBA, K/9, ERA, Win %, Opponent OBA, and K/BB statistics are all better the Jeff Suppan’s.

UPDATE: The Brewers also signed veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Not to be confused with Sophie B., LaTroy Hawkins throws a very fast ball and figures to be the primary set-up man for the Brewers next year. Hawkins can also save should it be needed. Hawkins is in his upper 30’s and is no spring chicken anymore, but as our closer showed us, age isn’t everything. He was signed for two years and about $7.5 million a year. The two year part of the deal was how Hawkins was swayed away from Houston.

I read some quick fan reactions and many fans are relieved that the pitching staff is coming together, but it was a very expensive day.

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Projecting Selected Free Agents

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

To bring everything together with the projection posts I’ve made this week, here are some projections for some selected Free Agents.  I took a look at everybody mentioned in this RFB Round Table post, as well as some other guys I think could be interesting.

First, position players.

This table works very similarly to the hitters projection table.  Average wOBA = .329.

wOBA comes from the Marcel projections, FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) comes from Sean Smith’s defensive projections.

Players who play multiple positions have separate projections for each position.  Note that the market value given is for <b>650 PAs</b>.  I’ve also given a number for every 100 PAs.  This way, we can scale towards the amount of playing time that we’d expect and find the proper value.

3B Crede Joe 31 0.325 -2.26 10 2.5 10.24 0.98 2.83 13.71 2.11
CF Langerhans Ryan 29 0.310 -10.74 9 2.5 0.76 0.07 1.93 9.34 1.44
SS Everett Adam 32 0.28 -27.7 19 7.5 -1.2 -0.11 1.74 8.44 1.3
3B Mientkiewicz Doug 35 0.332 1.7 -6 2.5 -1.8 -0.17 1.69 8.16 1.25
1B Mientkiewicz Doug 35 0.332 1.7 7 -12.5 -3.8 -0.36 1.49 7.23 1.11
LF/RF Langerhans Ryan 29 0.310 -10.74 14 -7.5 -4.24 -0.4 1.45 7.03 1.08
LF/RF Kapler Gabe 34 0.337 4.52 -2 -7.5 -4.98 -0.47 1.38 6.69 1.03
SS Punto Nick 32 0.299 -16.96 3 7.5 -6.46 -0.61 1.24 6.01 0.92
3B Hinske Eric 32 0.330 0.57 -10 2.5 -6.93 -0.66 1.2 5.79 0.89
2B Everett Adam 32 0.28 -27.7 16 2.5 -9.2 -0.88 0.98 4.75 0.73
2B Loretta Mark 38 0.315 -7.91 -5 2.5 -10.41 -0.99 0.87 4.19 0.64
3B Punto Nick 32 0.299 -16.96 4 2.5 -10.46 -1 0.86 4.17 0.64
2B Durham Ray 38 0.325 -2.26 -11 2.5 -10.76 -1.02 0.83 4.03 0.62
1B Hinske Eric 32 0.330 0.57 -2 -12.5 -13.93 -1.33 0.53 2.57 0.39
2B Punto Nick 32 0.299 -16.96 -1 2.5 -15.46 -1.47 0.39 1.86 0.29
LF/RF Hinske Eric 32 0.330 0.57 -11 -7.5 -17.93 -1.71 0.15 0.72 0.11

Here we see our needs: a backup MIF, a backup OF, and a starting/platoon 3B.  I personally like Ryan Langerhans a lot because he’s an absolute stud in CF, and similarly I like Joe Crede a lot at 3B.  Langerhans will be cheap, but I’m not entirely sure what kind of contract we can expect for Crede.  He’s performed well in his time with the White Sox, but he’s been riddled with injuries, so we’ll have to see.

Eric Hinske was mentioned a lot here.  I don’t think he would work very well as a starter, but he could be an interesting platoon partner for Bill Hall.  Hinske has massive platoon splits (career .805 OPS vs. RHP against a .685 OPS vs. LHP) and could work well.  This would also leverage Hall’s platoon splits (.741/.847 R/L career).

I think Adam Everett would be a steal to put on the bench as our new Craig Counsell type player.  He’s a godawful hitter, but he could spell Hardy or Escobar once or twice a week and provide great defense, and he could play 2B in a pinch (but he’s wasted there).

Now some SPs

Average ERA = Average FIP = 4.34.  Replacement level for SPs = 5.65.

nameLast nameFirst Age ERA mFIP ERARAA/160 IP FIPRAA/160 ERAWAA/160 FIPWAA/160 WAR/160 Value/160 Value/10 IP
Sabathia C.C. 29 3.22 3.23 19.91 19.73 1.9 1.88 4.1 19.83 1.24
Sheets Ben 31 3.59 3.66 13.33 12.09 1.27 1.15 3.37 16.31 1.02
Lowe Derek 36 3.65 3.7 12.27 11.38 1.17 1.08 3.3 15.98 1
Burnett A.J. 32 3.97 3.85 6.58 8.71 0.63 0.83 3.05 14.75 0.92
Johnson Randy 46 4.33 4.12 0.18 3.91 0.02 0.37 2.59 12.54 0.78
Penny Brad 31 4.25 4.17 1.6 3.02 0.15 0.29 2.51 12.13 0.76
Wolf Randy 33 4.5 4.22 -2.84 2.06 -0.27 0.2 2.41 11.69 0.73
Garland Jon 30 4.5 4.48 -2.84 -2.49 -0.27 -0.24 1.98 9.59 0.6
Hendrickson Mark 35 4.83 4.5 -8.71 -2.84 -0.83 -0.27 1.95 9.42 0.59
Perez Oliver 28 4.22 4.57 2.13 -4.09 0.2 -0.39 1.83 8.85 0.55
Looper Braden 35 4.42 4.58 -1.42 -4.27 -0.14 -0.41 1.81 8.77 0.55
Perez Odalis 32 4.95 4.59 -10.84 -4.44 -1.03 -0.42 1.79 8.69 0.54
Pavano Carl 33 4.79 4.67 -8 -5.87 -0.76 -0.56 1.66 8.03 0.5
Moyer Jamie 47 4.58 4.71 -4.27 -6.53 -0.41 -0.62 1.6 7.72 0.48

Well, these guys are all incredibly expensive.  That’s the way it is for SPs, though, because they throw so many innings and a replacment level SP is really, really bad.  Personally, I think the best deal on this list will be Randy Johnson.  He’s still pitching amazingly well even though he’s in his mid 40s, and as a result he likely isn’t looking for a long-term deal.  The D-Back’s tried to sign him for 7.5 million and he declined, but it’s likely he will be paid less than he was last year (15M).   I suspect that Garland will not be a bargain and I think we should stay away from him, even though he possibly could be helped by a move to the NL.

I personally think that the best bargain on this list will be Brad Penny, due to his struggles in recent seasons.  However, it looks like he could still have some decent seasons left in him, and in this down market,  f he could be had for less than 9 million/season, I think it would be an incredible deal for the Brewers.

Some of the guys at the bottom of the list could be potential bottom of the rotation guys, but are probably unnecessary at this point.

Now for RPs.  I’ve listed both WAR and LWAR here.  LWAR, in this case, is Leveraged Wins Above Replacement.  In this case, I’m assuming if any of these guys were moved into the closer role, they would face an average situation with a Leverage Index of 1.93.  LWAR is found, then, by 1.93 * WAR.

The bolded numbers are WAR/80 IP.  I’ve also supplied LWAR/80, WAR/10, and LWAR/10.

nameLast nameFirst Age ERA mFIP ERARAA/80 FIPRAA/80 ERAWAA/80 FIPWAA/80 WAR/80 LWAR/80 Value/80 Lvalue/80 Value/10 Lvalue/10
Rodriguez Francisco 27 3.27 3.41 9.51 8.27 0.95 0.83 1.05 2.03 5.08 9.83 0.64 1.23
Wood Kerry 32 3.76 3.46 5.16 7.82 0.52 0.78 1.01 1.94 4.88 9.43 0.61 1.18
Fuentes Brian 34 3.63 3.70 6.31 5.69 0.63 0.57 0.8 1.55 3.89 7.53 0.49 0.94
Beimel Joe 32 3.78 3.93 4.98 3.64 0.5 0.36 0.61 1.18 2.95 5.71 0.37 0.71
Hoffman Trevor 42 3.74 4.04 5.33 2.67 0.53 0.27 0.52 1 2.5 4.83 0.31 0.6
Paronto Chad 34 4.24 4.08 0.89 2.31 0.09 0.23 0.48 0.93 2.34 4.52 0.29 0.56
Julio Jorge 30 4.4 4.16 -0.53 1.6 -0.05 0.16 0.41 0.8 2.01 3.88 0.25 0.49
Oliver Darren 39 3.9 4.17 3.91 1.51 0.39 0.15 0.41 0.78 1.97 3.8 0.25 0.48
Correia Kevin 29 4.63 4.36 -2.58 -0.18 -0.26 -0.02 0.25 0.47 1.19 2.3 0.15 0.29
Schroder Chris 31 4.22 4.39 1.07 -0.44 0.11 -0.04 0.22 0.42 1.07 2.06 0.13 0.26
Lieber Jon 39 4.76 4.56 -3.73 -1.96 -0.37 -0.2 0.08 0.15 0.37 0.71 0.05 0.09

Here we have the big 4 closers, as well as some other pieces that I think could be good fits.  I especially like Joe Beimel, now that LA declined to offer him arbitration.  He could be a good back end piece.  I think Chris Schroder and Chad Paronto would be goot front end pieces for cheap as well.

As far as the big 4 go, I think we should avoid Hoffman.  He’s been benefitting from Petco (and Marcel doesn’t know parks) and he’s on a swift decline.  I think either of the other three have the potential to be a good deal, and the longer it goes without either of them signing, the better the likelihood of a good deal for us.

Overall, I think there’s plenty on the market to suit our needs this winter.  The only question is whether or not we can find the value to push us into the playoffs.

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