Posts Tagged ‘Offseason Scorecard’

Offseason Scorecard: St. Louis Cardinals

Wednesday, February 11th, 2009

By virtue of Houston only playing 161 games, the Cardinals actually finished in 4th last year.  Here we go…

RECORD: 86-76
PYTHAGOREAN RECORD: 86.4-75.6 (+.4)
THIRD-ORDER WINS (FROM BASEBALL PROSPECTUS): 84.6-77.4 (-1.4)
TEAM WAR: BATTERS 32.4 | PITCHERS 9.9 | TOTAL 42.3 | WAR RECORD: 88.8-73.2 (+2.8)
ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY (CONTRACT SALARY/YEARS | 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
RP TREVER MILLER (1M/1 YR | 0.4)
WINS GAINED THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 0.4
ACQUIRED THROUGH TRADES (CONTRACT SALARY/YEARS | 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
SS KHALIL GREENE  (6.5M/1 YR | 1.5)
WINS GAINED THROUGH TRADES: 1.5
TOTAL MONEY SPENT: 7.5M/1 YR
TOTAL WINS GAINED: 1.9
LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
RP RANDY FLORES* (0.3)
RP JASON ISRINGHAUSEN* (-0.2)
SS CESAR IZTURIS (0.4)
RP TYLER JOHNSON (-0.1)
SP BRADEN LOOPER (1.3)
SS FELIPE LOPEZ (1.0)
2B AARON MILES (0.7)
SP MARK MULDER* (-0.3)
RP RUSS SPRINGER (0.5)
RP RON VILLONE* (0.0)
* CURRENTLY UNSIGNED
WINS LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 3.6
RELEASED (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
2B ADAM KENNEDY (0.6)
WINS LOST THROUGH RELEASES: 0.6
TOTAL WINS LOST: 4.2
OFFSEASON WIN CHANGE: -2.3
PROJECTED ROSTER:
CA: YADIER MOLINA, JASON LARUE
1B: ALBERT PUJOLS
2B: SKIP SCHUMAKER, BRENDAN RYAN
3B: TROY GLAUSE, BRIAN BARDEN
SS: KHALIL GREENE
LF: CHRIS DUNCAN, BRIAN BARTON
CF: RICK ANKIEL
RF: RYAN LUDWICK
SP: ADAM WAINWRIGHT, KYLE LOHSE, TODD WELLEMEYER, JOEL PINIERO, CHRIS CARPENTER (?), JAIME GARCIA
RP: CHRIS PEREZ, RYAN FRANKLIN, KYLE MCCLELLAN, JOSH KINNERY, BRAD THOMPSON, CHRIS CARPENTER (?)

Last year’s Cardinals were a very interesting beast.  They relied almost completely on production from position players, putting up the second best positional WAR in the entire major leagues, mostly bolstered by by an NL leading 86 batting runs above average, 12 better than the #2 Cubs.  They also played pretty solid defense.  However, there’s been a pretty good amount of turnover this year, as you can see above. Once again, the major question mark will be the rotation.  Adam Wainwright will probably be solid again, but then there’s nothing but question marks.  I really have no idea what to expect out of former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter.  Kyle Lohse was signed to what is potentially the worst contract of the entire offseason, at 4 years/41M.  Most projection systems see him as a 4.20 ERA pitcher, which, in this market, is certainly not worth 10M/year, especially including the high likelihood of a decline.  Wellemeyer is unproven, and Piniero is proven to be awful.  Still, any team with Albert Pujols can definitely make some noise, especially if Ryan Ludwick puts up another great season.  The Cardinals could be a force with Carpenter, but I’m really not sure at all what to expect without him.

Offseason Scorecard: Cincinnati Reds

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

Here is the second entry in the offseason scorecard series.  Today we have the 5th place Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds

RECORD: 74-88
PYTHAGOREAN RECORD: 71.2-90.8 (-2.8)
THIRD-ORDER WINS (FROM BASEBALL PROSPECTUS): 67.8-94.2 (-6.2)
TEAM WAR: BATTERS 9.1 | PITCHERS 11.1 | WAR RECORD 66.9 - 95.1 (-7.1)

ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY (CONTRACT LENGTH/SALARY | 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
RF JONNY GOMES (MLC* | -0.4)
RP ARTHUR RHODES (2 YR/4.0$M | 1.1)
CF WILLY TAVERAS (2 YR/6.25$M | 0.7)
CA HUMBERTO COTA (MLC | 0.2)

SUMMARY:
MONEY SPENT ON FREE AGENTS: 5.93M$/YR
WINS ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 1.6

*MINOR LEAGUE CONTRACT

ADDED THROUGH RULE5 DRAFT
RP DAVID PATTON (NO PRIOR MAJOR LEAGUE EXPERIENCE)

ADDED THROUGH TRADES (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
CA RAMON HERNANDEZ (2.3)
WINS ADDED THROUGH TRADES: 2.3

TOTAL WINS ADDED: 3.9

LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
RP JEREMY AFFELDT (0.4)
CA PAUL BAKO (-0.1)
RP MATT BELISLE (0.8)
SP JOSH FOGG (1.0)
RP GARY MAJEWSKI (0.0)
RP KENT MERCKER (-0.1)
CF COREY PATTERSON (0.9)
CA JAVIER VALENTIN (0.9)

WINS LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 3.8

LOST THROUGH TRADES (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
IF/OF RYAN FREEL (0.8)

WINS LOST THROUGH TRADES: 0.8

TOTAL WINS LOST: 4.6

OFFSEASON WIN CHANGE: -0.7

PROJECTED ROSTER:
CA: RAMON HERNANDEZ, RYAN HANIGAN
1B: JOEY VOTTO
2B: BRANDON PHILLIPS, WILKIN CASTILLO
3B: EDWIN ENCARNACION, JEFF KEPPINGER
SS: ALEX GONZALES, JERRY HAIRSTON
LF: CHRIS DICKERSON, NORRIS HOPPER
CF: WILLY TAVERAS
RF: JAY BRUCE
SP: AARON HARANG, EDINSON VOLQUEZ, BRONSON ARROYO, JOHNNY CUETO, MICAH OWINGS
RP: FRANCISCO CORDERO, DAVID WEATHERS, JARED BURTON, BILL BRAY, ARTHUR RHODES, MIKE LINCOLN

I was surprised to see how many players the Reds had lost through Free Agency. Most of these players are marginal, but Patterson, Affeldt, and Belisle (to a point) are all decent assets. I was also surprised to see how truly awful the Reds hitters were in a context-neutral environment (wins above replacement). The only teams with a lower overall hitters WAR were Seattle and Colorado. Combine this with a bunch of mostly lateral offseason moves, and you have another weak team. As such, despite all the great young talent coming up through the Reds system (Volquez, Votto, Bruce) as well as a couple established hitters in Phillips and Encarnacion (who, on a side note, has absolutely no business playing third base), I expect another 60 or 70 win year out of Cincinatti. However, I really think this team could be a power in a few years if they can lock down Volquez and Cueto and find another couple of SPs, whether it’s through the farm system or through free agency. The talent core is there, but 1) they haven’t reached their peak yet and 2) they don’t have the surrounding talent to take them to the next level.

Offseason Scorecard: Pittsburgh Pirates

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

With Spring Training creeping up, I figured that now would be a good time to start reviewing how other teams in the NL Central managed their offseasons.  Today, we’ll start by taking a look at last year’s cellar dwellar in the Central, the Pittsburgh pirates

TEAM: PITTSBURGH PIRATES
RECORD: 67-95
PYTHAGOREAN RECORD: 66.7-95.3 (-.3)
THIRD-ORDER WINS (FROM BASEBALL PROSPECTUS): 61.8-100.2 (-5.2)
TEAM WAR: BATTERS 14.4 | PITCHERS 3.1 | WAR RECORD: 64.2-97.8 (-2.8)
LOST TO FREE AGENCY (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
SS CHRIS GOMEZ (0.1)
OF JASON MICHAELS (0.4)
IF DOUG MIENTKIEWICZ (0.9)
TOTAL WAR LOST: 1.4 WAR
ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY (CONTRACT LENGTH/SALARY, 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
OF/IF ERIC HINSKE (1 YR/1.5$M, 1.0)
3B RAMON VAZQUEZ (2 YR/4$M, 0.1)
TOTAL WAR ADDED: 1.1 WAR
SIGNIFICANT TRADES:
JULY 31, 2008: ACQUIRED P CRAIG HANSEN, P BRYAN MORRIS, 3B ANDY LAROCHE, OF BRANDON MOSS FOR OF
JASON BAY
PROJECTED ROSTER
CA: RYAN DOUMIT, ROBINZON DIAZ
1B: ADAM LAROCHE
2B: FREDDY SANCHEZ, RAMON VAZQUEZ
SS: JACK WILSON
3B: ANDY LAROCHE, ERIC HINSKE
LF: BRANDON MOSS, CRAIG MONROE
CF: NATE MCLOUTH
RF: STEVE PEARCE, NYJER MORGAN
SP: PAUL MAHOLM, IAN SNELL, ROSS OHLENDORF, TOM GORZELANNY, ZACH DUKE
RP: MATT CAPPS, JOHN GRABOW, TYLER YATES, DENNY BAUTISTA, SEAN BURNETT, CRAIG HANSEN

The Pirates have not made many moves this offseason, and while a number of impact players do remain available through free agency, the Pirates have not surfaced on the rumor wire. Expect another rebuilding season for the Pirates, although there remain a few bright spots for Pittsburgh in Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm, and Matt Capps. Brandon Moss could be a player to watch, as he was once a highly touted prospect with Boston.


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