This Week’s Topic: With the winter meetings starting next week, come up with a realistic trade idea for the Brewers

Joe -

I’m taking the high road on this one. Yeah, super lame and weak, I know. I was really pumped about the idea of trading for Matt Cain; however, that seems less and less likely. The Giants are reportedly interested in JJ Hardy (as Jared linked in Wednesday’s “News” post), but apparently the Brewers are not. On top of that, the Giants have signed Edgar Renteria to a two year deal. Although, if reports of the Giants courting CC Sabathia ring true and he does choose to sign with his “home town” club, the Giants might try to push a trade for one of their starters (besides little Timmy of course). Since the Matt Cain talk has subsided, there is no one in particular that gives me that J-Riv hard on. So I’ve taken the empty-minded, wait and see approach to this offseason.

Bryan -

One thing I love reading are all the crazy trade ideas people have and all the possibilities for players to land. That’s why this week’s topic asks for semi realistic trades but, in the grand scheme of things, are probably still terribly unrealistic. I’d still prefer it if more baseball players stayed put, but this is the system we have so might as well enjoy the drama that comes with it.

One trade that I think would make sense for both teams is this:

Bill Hall and a PTBNL to the Tigers for Zach Miner or Nate Robertson. The Tigers have a bunch of starting pitchers and have already looked into getting rid of Nate Robertson for Julio Lugo…allegedly. Even if they get rid of Robertson to another team, they still have stud-in-waiting named Rick Porcello in the minors. The Tigers also need a third baseman so Brandon Inge can go back to catching.

It won’t happen but maybe, just maybe, the Angels believe that Brandon Wood is their future and Chone Figgins would be on the Brewers radar. Or vice versa. They need a first baseman if Texeira doesn’t return and Brad Nelson wouldn’t be a bad piece in a trade that would also probably need to include a high prospect or current pitcher.

That said, I’d be shocked if the Brewers made a trade that would affect any starting roles. I believe we will see more signings and trades like the Julio signing this year and Torres trade from last year.

Next week, the roundtable will be back on Friday morning like it used to be. Until then, feel free to comment and enjoy the winter meetings.

There are more question marks for the Brewers going into this offseason than there have been since before the Yost era began. The team made the playoffs and has become a proven contender, but with the likely loss of Sabathia and Sheets, holes at third base and in the bullpen, rising prospects knocking on the Major League door, questions surrounding the payroll and a change at manager, the winter will be a time of transition for the organization.

Will GM Doug Melvin play it safe and build the team back up through the draft and with minor free agent signings or will he make bold trades and pickups in order to reshape the team for another “all or nothing” run at the playoffs in 2009? Rumors started before the season even ended and Brewers fans anxiously await the important decisions the front office will make.

At Right Field Bleachers, we’re as excited as anyone. And we love making predictions that will make us look foolish just a few weeks down the road. So, we’ve put together some odds on how likely we think the already rumored transactions will take place. We also give some early odds on how far we think the team will get next year. Early indications are that you might want to wait to see how some of the offseason moves unfold before you bet on baseball, at least on the Crew.

The Brewers will sign CC Sabathia.

13.25% Chance

How we voted
Joe — 15% 
Bryan — 15%
Tyler — 15%
Jared — 8%

There is no doubt that CC loved his time in Milwaukee, but do you really expect the guy to turn down the type of skrilla the Yankees and such are undoubtedly about to throw at him? I don’t. — Joe

The Brewers will sign Ben Sheets.

9.25%

Joe — 10% 
Bryan — 10%
Tyler — 12%
Jared — 5%

There’s a small chance if the price is low enough, but he doesn’t think he’s going to be on the team and, sadly, neither do I. — Bryan

The Brewers will trade for Jake Peavy.

9.25%

Joe — 20%
Bryan — 5%
Tyler — 5%
Jared — 7%

He doesn’t seem to want to even leave San Diego, but if he did, Milwaukee doesn’t seem to be a place he wants to go. Short and sweet, I just don’t see this happening. — Tyler

The Brewers will trade for Matt Cain.

24.25%

Joe — 50%
Bryan — 10%
Tyler — 27%
Jared — 10%

The Giants and the Brewers seem to be good trade partners. I think the Giants want too much for Matt Cain to get this done, but it’s about the same chance as re-signing Ben Sheets. — Bryan

The Brewers will trade Prince Fielder.

23.75%

Joe — 50%
Bryan — 2%
Tyler — 33%
Jared —10%

Prince is coming off a productive year, but certainly not one that’s close to his peak potential. Why trade him now when his value is lower than it could be? Sure, he probably won’t sign a long-term deal to stay in Milwaukee, but the Brewers have him under their control for three more seasons. The team doesn’t have an in-house replacement ready to go either. Unless a team blows the Brewers away with an offer (Matt Cain is intriguing, but that might not even be enough), I say he’ll be back in Milwaukee next year. — Jared

The Brewers will trade J.J. Hardy.

19%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 6%
Tyler — 18%
Jared — 12%
Average — 19%

It’s only so high because his salary is jumping upward every season, and he’ll likely garner at least $4 million in arbitration for 2009. With Alcides Escobar waiting in the wings and Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall next to untradable, Hardy might be forced to go… but I hope he sticks around. — Tyler

The Brewers will trade Rickie Weeks.

16.25%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 10%
Tyler — 0%
Jared — 15%

I think, at this point, the Crew is ready to hear offers, but I wonder what teams will be willing to offer for him. In the right package, Weeks is gone. — Joe

Alcides Escobar will start 2009 in the Majors.

48%

Joe — 90% 
Bryan — 30%
Tyler — 22%
Jared — 50%
Average — 48%

His defense is MLB-ready and he has improved his offensive game considerably, enough that he could one day become a top-of-the-order hitter. Melvin has admitted the team is considering shifting Hardy’s position to make room for the slick-fielding Escobar, but that’s not the only way he could see the field. With Escobar on the cusp of a full-time call up, Hardy’s name is at the forefront of trade rumors. The Brewers have not been afraid to develop their prospects in Milwaukee (see Hardy and Weeks) and I would not be surprised at all to see Alcides on the field at Miller Park in April. — Jared

Mat Gamel will start 2009 in the Majors

23.5%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 20%
Tyler — 9% 
Jared — 25%

Gamel certainly needs more time in the minors to keep working at his fielding issues. He’s the third baseman of the future and looks to have the makings of a great player, but there’s only so many spots in the outfield to exile former infielders to. — Tyler

The Brewers will make the playoffs in 2009.

55.5%

Joe — 80%
Bryan — 25%
Tyler — 84%
Jared — 33%

The odds will go higher if they get C.C., might go slightly lower if they don’t get any pitcher. — Bryan

The Brewers will win the division in 2009.

33.75%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 25%
Tyler — 50%
Jared — 20%

I think the major competition will be the Cubs, and I don’t see them regressing from this year. The Astros and Cardinals always seem to be very solid and the Reds aren’t far off either. — Joe

The Brewers will win the World Series in 2009.

8.75%

Joe — 5%
Bryan — 8%
Tyler — 18%
Jared — 4%

Pitching and defense wins championships in baseball. The Brewers have average defense and will work to fill holes in their bullpen. It’s the loss of Sabathia and Sheets that will likely be too much to overcome. The team should be competitive in 2008 and Melvin might be aggressive this offseason, but I think 2009 will be used to reload. If the Brewers can usher in some of their top prospects and rebuild their rotation, 2010 might be the year you could make some money on the Brewers through sports betting. — Jared

Conclusion

So, there you go. Even though these rumors dominate the blogosphere, as a group we feel there is a coin flip chance at best of any of them happening and most are far less likely than that in our eyes. But we’re just four Brewer fan degenerates pretending we can get into Doug Melvin’s mind. What do you think the Brewers will do?

No matter what happens, it should be an interesting offseason.

This week’s topic: What is the Brewers top priority this offseason?

Jared - 

I’d say hiring a manager is priority number one because it effects all of the other offseason questions.

 

CC would not sign a deal with the team without knowing the manager. JJ would not sign a long-term deal without knowing who was in charge. The new manager will likely have a say in if he wants to roll with Gamel and/or Escobar next season. You get the point…

 

Truthfully, I think Melvin has already made his decision on the manager (and my gut says it’s Macha), but he has to wait until the Series is over to make the announcement. After the announcement is made, it will put the dominoes in motion for the rest of what will be a very important offseason.

Tyler - 

To me, priority number one is getting some pitchers. It still seems doubtful the Brewers can sign Sabathia and almost as doubtful they bring Sheets back in, so obtaining another pitcher either in free agency or by way of trade is paramount this offseason.

With the exclusions of the possibly departing afore-mentioned free agents the rotation is probably Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra and one of McClung/Villanueva/Capuano (some uncertainties with Cappy). I’d personally love to see the Brewers fill in that one sizable uncertainty with a servicable and affordable ace or, more realistically, a number two guy.

I like Derek Lowe a lot, and I hear his teammate Brad Penny may not have his pricey $8.75 M ‘09 option picked up by L.A. Otherwise, if not giving up too much to do so, Matt Cain would be a huge pickup. In the less impressive but still well worth looking into department, as I write this (Tuesday morning) the Orioles just released struggling youngster Adam Loewen. Loewen is Canadian so you know he’s present somewhere on Melvin and Ash’s big board. A low risk, short-term and affordable signing such as the Cardinals did with their $5 M deal with Kyle Lohse might pay off for a team with Milwaukee’s payroll.

Other realistic, decent and somewhat affordable starting pitching options on the free agent market IMO are players like Jon Garland, Jamie Moyer and, you’ll laugh… but here it goes, Carl Pavano - who stepped it up late in 2008, and can be signed at an absolute bargain basement price. Whoever it is and whichever method is taken to make it happen, I feel that securing at least one top half of the rotation starter is the most important gap for Milwaukee to fill this offseason.

Joe -

The Brewers have a hand full of holes to fill. They need a new manager. Getting a true lead-off man would be fantastic, as would adding a bullpen arm. In my opinion, it’s pretty obvious what the Brewers number one priority is getting a top of the rotation arm to compliment Yovani Gallardo.

There are a few ways to accomplish this, the most obvious being signing CC Sabathia. Call me Mr Negative, but I just don’t see it happening. The only way the Brewers sign CC is if he really would take four years for $100 million, but even that could cripple a small market team like the Brewers.

I think a trade for a solid young arm is far more likely. I felt pretty good about the likely hood of the Brewers trading for Matt Cain, but lately I’ve been thinking that is less and less likely. I have a feeling the Giants will be asking for too much. Would I trade JJ for Cain straight up? Absolutely! Prince for Cain? I think so. But sorry Mr Gammons, JJ and Prince plus possibly another player for Cain is just too much. Did you mean to say little Timmy Lincecum? I didn’t think so. (Please see the Brewmors page for many more trade rumors)

Obviously there are other means in obtaining another solid starter, but I think those are the two most likely of situations. I expect the trade and free agent signing rumors to start getting really heavy after the Brewers hire their manager and as the Winter Meetings edge closer. No matter what, this will be a fun and interesting off season.

Bryan -

I’m sorry if this bounces all over. I saw Los Lonley Boys sing the National Anthem and became befuddled. Is that the best MLB could bring to Tampa? Aren’t they from Texas or something? Is it World Series 2K4?

Anyway, I think it’s amazing how much things change in a year. In July, I had a couple friends tell me that signing Corey Hart to a long term deal is the most important priority for the Brewers. Well, no one is really talking about that anymore, are they?

The Brewers top prioirity this offseason is pitching. No question. The manager could be Connie Mack back from the dead and it wouldn’t matter if this team does not address their pitching needs. First of all, C.C. They will give him an offer. That priority is going to handle itself. C.C. will either choose the fun he had in Milwaukee and stick around for 4 years, or take the 6 year mad jack that the other teams are going to offer him. Ben Sheets basically has said he doesn’t think he’s coming back. Some have stated they’re fine going in with Yovani and Manny as 1 and 2, but we all saw what happened with Manny at the end of his first full year. It wasn’t pretty. It could happen to Yo as well. The Brewers need a strong starting pitcher. Derek Lowe is a big name floating out there. I think Lowe is getting old. Don’t believe me? He was drafted in the same class as Paul Byrd and Brad Radke. He had a good couple seasons in LA Land, but he could turn out to be Jeff Suppan with a sinker. The Giants believe Matt Cain is an ace and should get that amount returned to them. Matt Cain may be stuck on a bad team, but I don’t believe he’s earned the status of “ace” quite yet. Tim Lincecum is an ace, Matt Cain is a very good pitcher on a bad team.

So what to do? The Brewers need to either make one dynamic signing/trade or do what they did for the bullpen last year. Make some one to two year signings and see who pans out. Worked for the Cardinals, they keep picking up arms in low value and they do well for one year (see Jeff Weaver and Kyle Lohse). Might not be good after the one year, but that’s all we’re asking for to make sure that Yovani and Manny will be strong enough to pitch an entire year.

The bullpen is a concern again this year. Will Salomon be back, and if he is, will he be the Salomon of May-August? Or will he be the Salomon of September-October? Will Mota or Gagne be back? If not, who fills in those spots? We need to answer those questions otherwise we might have to bring Turnbow back. Is Shouse going to retire? The only things I like about the bullpen right now are Carlos and Mitch. Riske should be better, but after that who is going to be around that has experience? These are the questions that make this the top priority.

Your turn, what do you think the Brewers top priority is?

• Where Could Prince Land? - Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors (10/7/08)

The Fielder for Matt Cain rumor is popular, but has it been discussed by Melvin and Brian Sabean?  Who wins a straight-up swap?

• Chat: Joe Sheehan - Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus (10/6/08)

tommy (brooklyn): Wouldn’t you deal Cain for Prince in a heartbeat, given what you said about Giants pitching? Here you have a what, 24-year-old who has slugged 50 homers in a season? That’s worth Cain for sure, right?

Joe Sheehan: A bad-body 24-year-old who’s had one good year and would be moving to a disastrous park. No, I don’t do that if I’m the Giants, especially given I have Sandoval up and Villalona on the way. If they trade a starter, it should be for a comparable CF/RF. The Alex Rios deal rumored last year is the right type, albeit the wrong guy. You want to get…Adam Jones, or Matt Kemp, or Lastings Milledge…someone who will be your best player in two years.

• Daily Scoop - Jon Heyman, SI.com (10/6/08)

A Brewers official shot down the Internet rumor that had them possibly trading Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy and a third player for Giants pitcher Matt Cain. Not that I really needed to hear that denial first-hand, as it wouldn’t be an especially good move to trade either player straight-up for Cain. Hardy looked terrific in the playoffs, by the way.

• CC That Memo - Henry Schulman, SFGate.com (9/30/08) 

Conventional wisdom suggests the Giants have to move one of their top pitchers to acquire a big bat, but Sabean said, “I don’t think it’s going to take trading Matt Cain to do something.”

Asked if Cain and Tim Lincecum were officially untouchable, Sabean said, “In my mind, they are. I’m not going to trade the Cy Young Award winner whether he is or not, and Matty at 23 pitched like a Cy Young candidate at times.”

• Rotation will need makeover - Tom Haudricourt, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (9/27/08)

As for the insane rumor circulating that they’ll trade shortstop J.J. Hardy and first baseman Prince Fielder for San Francisco right-hander Matt Cain, I have this comment: Why not throw in Corey Hart and Alcides Escobar, since we’re being ridiculous?

• Fielder and Hardy to Giants for Cain? Do it. - Bruce Jenkins, San Francisco Chronicle (9/19/08)

Here’s all we’re saying for now: It just might be worth the gamble.

• Could Brewers’ duo make Giants lose grip on Cain? - Bill Bradley, The Sacramento Bee (9/19/08)

A lingering rumor was given new life Wednesday night. ESPN’s Peter Gammons said the Giants could trade starting pitcher Matt Cain, 23, to the Brewers for first baseman Prince Fielder, 24, shortstop J.J. Hardy, 26, and another player. He didn’t cite his source.

• Giants’ Cain doesn’t want to be trade bait - Andrew Baggarly, The Mercury News (9/18/08)

Cain knows his name will be churning on the rumor mill this off-season. The Giants never were close to trading him last winter, and they don’t want to move him now.

But they will have to keep an open mind to add a power hitter to their offense, and with young pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson on a rapid rise, they might be more amenable to moving Cain.

One rumor is already floating that would send Cain to Milwaukee for first baseman Prince Fielder. But Giants officials aren’t interested in a 1-for-1 swap for Cain, and it’s doubtful the Brewers would just toss in All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy.