Posts Tagged ‘Jamie Moyer’

Melvin, Moyer and Me: A Dream Realized

Friday, December 12th, 2008

I can see it now, and it's beautiful!

With CC Sabathia having signed elsewhere, Ben Sheets basically told to sign elsewhere and seemingly no immediate front of the rotation pitching help on the way to Milwaukee from the nearly completed Mike Cameron trade, it’s time for Doug Melvin to further submerge his toesies into the free agent pitching pool.

Luckily, the starting pitching options seem numerous and qualified, even with some of the class signing or approaching agreements in past week. And of the names that so elegantly made their way past Melvin’s brillowy lip piece and into the public ear, it seems The Man, The Myth has sized up Milwaukee’s pitching needs to be something in a 40.

Melvin told JS’s Tom Haudricourt yesterday that John Smoltz, Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson and Randy Wolf are on his radar. And, though it might make our resident mathemagician die a little inside, I’m straight up pitching a tent over Douglas’ professed interest in one of my favorite pitchers, Jamie Moyer.

Yeah, I know the Phillies are heavily interested in re-signing him. And yes, I am aware that his interest to remain in Philadelphia is mutual on his belhalf. But if there is a way, if there is a chance of this happening, then I am all aboard the good ship seasoned vet – one Jamie Moyer my preferred team’s rotational Captain.

Oh Captain, my Captain! I pray he hoists the sturdy sails of his staunch 4.19 lifetime ERA, his World Series ring, 246 wins and 22 annuals of quality moundsmanship and allows those things carry him Westward to the shores to Lake Michigan for a period no shorter than two years ($15M plus performance bonuses?). And I hate old players, but I don’t know why… Jamie Moyer is my kind of pitcher. I want to grow old(er) with him.

I don’t care that he’s older than my dad. I could give half a shit if he was drafted before I was born or that he preceded the invention of saltwater taffy. I can almost guarantee that in his youth, Jamie Moyer would walk to school shoeless, uphill for 20 miles to get to the schoolhouse. But can’t you see, none of that matters anymore!

I can take the disappointment of losing Carsten; I can even force myself to recognize that Milwaukee is probably worse off sans broken ass Ben Sheets and manage to persevere. But I can’t imagine a scenario with Milwaukee neglecting to make a formal offer to Jamie Moyer that makes a lick of sense after the week that was. If Melvin can find 15 minutes to free his balls from the workbench vise of this Cameron trade to get Moyer on the (undoubtedly rotary) phone to talk Brewerhood, I suggest he does. And if Moyer knows what’s good for me him, he’ll come to Milwaukee.

Projecting Selected Free Agents

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

To bring everything together with the projection posts I’ve made this week, here are some projections for some selected Free Agents.  I took a look at everybody mentioned in this RFB Round Table post, as well as some other guys I think could be interesting.

First, position players.

This table works very similarly to the hitters projection table.  Average wOBA = .329.

wOBA comes from the Marcel projections, FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) comes from Sean Smith’s defensive projections.

Players who play multiple positions have separate projections for each position.  Note that the market value given is for <b>650 PAs</b>.  I’ve also given a number for every 100 PAs.  This way, we can scale towards the amount of playing time that we’d expect and find the proper value.

3B Crede Joe 31 0.325 -2.26 10 2.5 10.24 0.98 2.83 13.71 2.11
CF Langerhans Ryan 29 0.310 -10.74 9 2.5 0.76 0.07 1.93 9.34 1.44
SS Everett Adam 32 0.28 -27.7 19 7.5 -1.2 -0.11 1.74 8.44 1.3
3B Mientkiewicz Doug 35 0.332 1.7 -6 2.5 -1.8 -0.17 1.69 8.16 1.25
1B Mientkiewicz Doug 35 0.332 1.7 7 -12.5 -3.8 -0.36 1.49 7.23 1.11
LF/RF Langerhans Ryan 29 0.310 -10.74 14 -7.5 -4.24 -0.4 1.45 7.03 1.08
LF/RF Kapler Gabe 34 0.337 4.52 -2 -7.5 -4.98 -0.47 1.38 6.69 1.03
SS Punto Nick 32 0.299 -16.96 3 7.5 -6.46 -0.61 1.24 6.01 0.92
3B Hinske Eric 32 0.330 0.57 -10 2.5 -6.93 -0.66 1.2 5.79 0.89
2B Everett Adam 32 0.28 -27.7 16 2.5 -9.2 -0.88 0.98 4.75 0.73
2B Loretta Mark 38 0.315 -7.91 -5 2.5 -10.41 -0.99 0.87 4.19 0.64
3B Punto Nick 32 0.299 -16.96 4 2.5 -10.46 -1 0.86 4.17 0.64
2B Durham Ray 38 0.325 -2.26 -11 2.5 -10.76 -1.02 0.83 4.03 0.62
1B Hinske Eric 32 0.330 0.57 -2 -12.5 -13.93 -1.33 0.53 2.57 0.39
2B Punto Nick 32 0.299 -16.96 -1 2.5 -15.46 -1.47 0.39 1.86 0.29
LF/RF Hinske Eric 32 0.330 0.57 -11 -7.5 -17.93 -1.71 0.15 0.72 0.11

Here we see our needs: a backup MIF, a backup OF, and a starting/platoon 3B.  I personally like Ryan Langerhans a lot because he’s an absolute stud in CF, and similarly I like Joe Crede a lot at 3B.  Langerhans will be cheap, but I’m not entirely sure what kind of contract we can expect for Crede.  He’s performed well in his time with the White Sox, but he’s been riddled with injuries, so we’ll have to see.

Eric Hinske was mentioned a lot here.  I don’t think he would work very well as a starter, but he could be an interesting platoon partner for Bill Hall.  Hinske has massive platoon splits (career .805 OPS vs. RHP against a .685 OPS vs. LHP) and could work well.  This would also leverage Hall’s platoon splits (.741/.847 R/L career).

I think Adam Everett would be a steal to put on the bench as our new Craig Counsell type player.  He’s a godawful hitter, but he could spell Hardy or Escobar once or twice a week and provide great defense, and he could play 2B in a pinch (but he’s wasted there).

Now some SPs

Average ERA = Average FIP = 4.34.  Replacement level for SPs = 5.65.

nameLast nameFirst Age ERA mFIP ERARAA/160 IP FIPRAA/160 ERAWAA/160 FIPWAA/160 WAR/160 Value/160 Value/10 IP
Sabathia C.C. 29 3.22 3.23 19.91 19.73 1.9 1.88 4.1 19.83 1.24
Sheets Ben 31 3.59 3.66 13.33 12.09 1.27 1.15 3.37 16.31 1.02
Lowe Derek 36 3.65 3.7 12.27 11.38 1.17 1.08 3.3 15.98 1
Burnett A.J. 32 3.97 3.85 6.58 8.71 0.63 0.83 3.05 14.75 0.92
Johnson Randy 46 4.33 4.12 0.18 3.91 0.02 0.37 2.59 12.54 0.78
Penny Brad 31 4.25 4.17 1.6 3.02 0.15 0.29 2.51 12.13 0.76
Wolf Randy 33 4.5 4.22 -2.84 2.06 -0.27 0.2 2.41 11.69 0.73
Garland Jon 30 4.5 4.48 -2.84 -2.49 -0.27 -0.24 1.98 9.59 0.6
Hendrickson Mark 35 4.83 4.5 -8.71 -2.84 -0.83 -0.27 1.95 9.42 0.59
Perez Oliver 28 4.22 4.57 2.13 -4.09 0.2 -0.39 1.83 8.85 0.55
Looper Braden 35 4.42 4.58 -1.42 -4.27 -0.14 -0.41 1.81 8.77 0.55
Perez Odalis 32 4.95 4.59 -10.84 -4.44 -1.03 -0.42 1.79 8.69 0.54
Pavano Carl 33 4.79 4.67 -8 -5.87 -0.76 -0.56 1.66 8.03 0.5
Moyer Jamie 47 4.58 4.71 -4.27 -6.53 -0.41 -0.62 1.6 7.72 0.48

Well, these guys are all incredibly expensive.  That’s the way it is for SPs, though, because they throw so many innings and a replacment level SP is really, really bad.  Personally, I think the best deal on this list will be Randy Johnson.  He’s still pitching amazingly well even though he’s in his mid 40s, and as a result he likely isn’t looking for a long-term deal.  The D-Back’s tried to sign him for 7.5 million and he declined, but it’s likely he will be paid less than he was last year (15M).   I suspect that Garland will not be a bargain and I think we should stay away from him, even though he possibly could be helped by a move to the NL.

I personally think that the best bargain on this list will be Brad Penny, due to his struggles in recent seasons.  However, it looks like he could still have some decent seasons left in him, and in this down market,  f he could be had for less than 9 million/season, I think it would be an incredible deal for the Brewers.

Some of the guys at the bottom of the list could be potential bottom of the rotation guys, but are probably unnecessary at this point.

Now for RPs.  I’ve listed both WAR and LWAR here.  LWAR, in this case, is Leveraged Wins Above Replacement.  In this case, I’m assuming if any of these guys were moved into the closer role, they would face an average situation with a Leverage Index of 1.93.  LWAR is found, then, by 1.93 * WAR.

The bolded numbers are WAR/80 IP.  I’ve also supplied LWAR/80, WAR/10, and LWAR/10.

nameLast nameFirst Age ERA mFIP ERARAA/80 FIPRAA/80 ERAWAA/80 FIPWAA/80 WAR/80 LWAR/80 Value/80 Lvalue/80 Value/10 Lvalue/10
Rodriguez Francisco 27 3.27 3.41 9.51 8.27 0.95 0.83 1.05 2.03 5.08 9.83 0.64 1.23
Wood Kerry 32 3.76 3.46 5.16 7.82 0.52 0.78 1.01 1.94 4.88 9.43 0.61 1.18
Fuentes Brian 34 3.63 3.70 6.31 5.69 0.63 0.57 0.8 1.55 3.89 7.53 0.49 0.94
Beimel Joe 32 3.78 3.93 4.98 3.64 0.5 0.36 0.61 1.18 2.95 5.71 0.37 0.71
Hoffman Trevor 42 3.74 4.04 5.33 2.67 0.53 0.27 0.52 1 2.5 4.83 0.31 0.6
Paronto Chad 34 4.24 4.08 0.89 2.31 0.09 0.23 0.48 0.93 2.34 4.52 0.29 0.56
Julio Jorge 30 4.4 4.16 -0.53 1.6 -0.05 0.16 0.41 0.8 2.01 3.88 0.25 0.49
Oliver Darren 39 3.9 4.17 3.91 1.51 0.39 0.15 0.41 0.78 1.97 3.8 0.25 0.48
Correia Kevin 29 4.63 4.36 -2.58 -0.18 -0.26 -0.02 0.25 0.47 1.19 2.3 0.15 0.29
Schroder Chris 31 4.22 4.39 1.07 -0.44 0.11 -0.04 0.22 0.42 1.07 2.06 0.13 0.26
Lieber Jon 39 4.76 4.56 -3.73 -1.96 -0.37 -0.2 0.08 0.15 0.37 0.71 0.05 0.09

Here we have the big 4 closers, as well as some other pieces that I think could be good fits.  I especially like Joe Beimel, now that LA declined to offer him arbitration.  He could be a good back end piece.  I think Chris Schroder and Chad Paronto would be goot front end pieces for cheap as well.

As far as the big 4 go, I think we should avoid Hoffman.  He’s been benefitting from Petco (and Marcel doesn’t know parks) and he’s on a swift decline.  I think either of the other three have the potential to be a good deal, and the longer it goes without either of them signing, the better the likelihood of a good deal for us.

Overall, I think there’s plenty on the market to suit our needs this winter.  The only question is whether or not we can find the value to push us into the playoffs.


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