Offseason Scorecard: St. Louis Cardinals

By virtue of Houston only playing 161 games, the Cardinals actually finished in 4th last year.  Here we go…

RECORD: 86-76
PYTHAGOREAN RECORD: 86.4-75.6 (+.4)
THIRD-ORDER WINS (FROM BASEBALL PROSPECTUS): 84.6-77.4 (-1.4)
TEAM WAR: BATTERS 32.4 | PITCHERS 9.9 | TOTAL 42.3 | WAR RECORD: 88.8-73.2 (+2.8)
ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY (CONTRACT SALARY/YEARS | 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
RP TREVER MILLER (1M/1 YR | 0.4)
WINS GAINED THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 0.4
ACQUIRED THROUGH TRADES (CONTRACT SALARY/YEARS | 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
SS KHALIL GREENE  (6.5M/1 YR | 1.5)
WINS GAINED THROUGH TRADES: 1.5
TOTAL MONEY SPENT: 7.5M/1 YR
TOTAL WINS GAINED: 1.9
LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR):
RP RANDY FLORES* (0.3)
RP JASON ISRINGHAUSEN* (-0.2)
SS CESAR IZTURIS (0.4)
RP TYLER JOHNSON (-0.1)
SP BRADEN LOOPER (1.3)
SS FELIPE LOPEZ (1.0)
2B AARON MILES (0.7)
SP MARK MULDER* (-0.3)
RP RUSS SPRINGER (0.5)
RP RON VILLONE* (0.0)
* CURRENTLY UNSIGNED
WINS LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 3.6
RELEASED (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
2B ADAM KENNEDY (0.6)
WINS LOST THROUGH RELEASES: 0.6
TOTAL WINS LOST: 4.2
OFFSEASON WIN CHANGE: -2.3
PROJECTED ROSTER:
CA: YADIER MOLINA, JASON LARUE
1B: ALBERT PUJOLS
2B: SKIP SCHUMAKER, BRENDAN RYAN
3B: TROY GLAUSE, BRIAN BARDEN
SS: KHALIL GREENE
LF: CHRIS DUNCAN, BRIAN BARTON
CF: RICK ANKIEL
RF: RYAN LUDWICK
SP: ADAM WAINWRIGHT, KYLE LOHSE, TODD WELLEMEYER, JOEL PINIERO, CHRIS CARPENTER (?), JAIME GARCIA
RP: CHRIS PEREZ, RYAN FRANKLIN, KYLE MCCLELLAN, JOSH KINNERY, BRAD THOMPSON, CHRIS CARPENTER (?)

Last year’s Cardinals were a very interesting beast.  They relied almost completely on production from position players, putting up the second best positional WAR in the entire major leagues, mostly bolstered by by an NL leading 86 batting runs above average, 12 better than the #2 Cubs.  They also played pretty solid defense.  However, there’s been a pretty good amount of turnover this year, as you can see above. Once again, the major question mark will be the rotation.  Adam Wainwright will probably be solid again, but then there’s nothing but question marks.  I really have no idea what to expect out of former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter.  Kyle Lohse was signed to what is potentially the worst contract of the entire offseason, at 4 years/41M.  Most projection systems see him as a 4.20 ERA pitcher, which, in this market, is certainly not worth 10M/year, especially including the high likelihood of a decline.  Wellemeyer is unproven, and Piniero is proven to be awful.  Still, any team with Albert Pujols can definitely make some noise, especially if Ryan Ludwick puts up another great season.  The Cardinals could be a force with Carpenter, but I’m really not sure at all what to expect without him.

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2 Responses to “Offseason Scorecard: St. Louis Cardinals”

  1. Football, Basketball, Hockey, NASCAR » Blog Archive » Right Field Bleachers » Blog Archive » Offseason Scorecard: St … Says:

    [...] Last year’s Cardinals were a very interesting beast. They relied almost completely on production from position players, putting up the second best positional WAR in the entire major leagues, mostly bolstered by by an NL leading 86 …Read More [...]

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