RFB at Odds

There are more question marks for the Brewers going into this offseason than there have been since before the Yost era began. The team made the playoffs and has become a proven contender, but with the likely loss of Sabathia and Sheets, holes at third base and in the bullpen, rising prospects knocking on the Major League door, questions surrounding the payroll and a change at manager, the winter will be a time of transition for the organization.

Will GM Doug Melvin play it safe and build the team back up through the draft and with minor free agent signings or will he make bold trades and pickups in order to reshape the team for another “all or nothing” run at the playoffs in 2009? Rumors started before the season even ended and Brewers fans anxiously await the important decisions the front office will make.

At Right Field Bleachers, we’re as excited as anyone. And we love making predictions that will make us look foolish just a few weeks down the road. So, we’ve put together some odds on how likely we think the already rumored transactions will take place. We also give some early odds on how far we think the team will get next year. Early indications are that you might want to wait to see how some of the offseason moves unfold before you bet on baseball, at least on the Crew.

 

The Brewers will sign CC Sabathia.

13.25% Chance

How we voted
Joe — 15% 
Bryan — 15%
Tyler — 15%
Jared — 8%

There is no doubt that CC loved his time in Milwaukee, but do you really expect the guy to turn down the type of skrilla the Yankees and such are undoubtedly about to throw at him? I don’t. — Joe

 

The Brewers will sign Ben Sheets.

9.25%

Joe — 10% 
Bryan — 10%
Tyler — 12%
Jared — 5%

There’s a small chance if the price is low enough, but he doesn’t think he’s going to be on the team and, sadly, neither do I. — Bryan

 

The Brewers will trade for Jake Peavy.

9.25%

Joe — 20%
Bryan — 5%
Tyler — 5%
Jared — 7%

He doesn’t seem to want to even leave San Diego, but if he did, Milwaukee doesn’t seem to be a place he wants to go. Short and sweet, I just don’t see this happening. — Tyler

 

The Brewers will trade for Matt Cain.

24.25%

Joe — 50%
Bryan — 10%
Tyler — 27%
Jared — 10%

The Giants and the Brewers seem to be good trade partners. I think the Giants want too much for Matt Cain to get this done, but it’s about the same chance as re-signing Ben Sheets. — Bryan

 

The Brewers will trade Prince Fielder.

23.75%

Joe — 50%
Bryan — 2%
Tyler — 33%
Jared —10%

Prince is coming off a productive year, but certainly not one that’s close to his peak potential. Why trade him now when his value is lower than it could be? Sure, he probably won’t sign a long-term deal to stay in Milwaukee, but the Brewers have him under their control for three more seasons. The team doesn’t have an in-house replacement ready to go either. Unless a team blows the Brewers away with an offer (Matt Cain is intriguing, but that might not even be enough), I say he’ll be back in Milwaukee next year. — Jared

 

The Brewers will trade J.J. Hardy.

19%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 6%
Tyler — 18%
Jared — 12%
Average — 19%

It’s only so high because his salary is jumping upward every season, and he’ll likely garner at least $4 million in arbitration for 2009. With Alcides Escobar waiting in the wings and Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall next to untradable, Hardy might be forced to go… but I hope he sticks around. — Tyler

 

The Brewers will trade Rickie Weeks.

16.25%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 10%
Tyler — 0%
Jared — 15%

I think, at this point, the Crew is ready to hear offers, but I wonder what teams will be willing to offer for him. In the right package, Weeks is gone. — Joe

 

Alcides Escobar will start 2009 in the Majors.

48%

Joe — 90% 
Bryan — 30%
Tyler — 22%
Jared — 50%
Average — 48%

His defense is MLB-ready and he has improved his offensive game considerably, enough that he could one day become a top-of-the-order hitter. Melvin has admitted the team is considering shifting Hardy’s position to make room for the slick-fielding Escobar, but that’s not the only way he could see the field. With Escobar on the cusp of a full-time call up, Hardy’s name is at the forefront of trade rumors. The Brewers have not been afraid to develop their prospects in Milwaukee (see Hardy and Weeks) and I would not be surprised at all to see Alcides on the field at Miller Park in April. — Jared

 

Mat Gamel will start 2009 in the Majors

23.5%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 20%
Tyler — 9% 
Jared — 25%

Gamel certainly needs more time in the minors to keep working at his fielding issues. He’s the third baseman of the future and looks to have the makings of a great player, but there’s only so many spots in the outfield to exile former infielders to. — Tyler

 

The Brewers will make the playoffs in 2009.

55.5%

Joe — 80%
Bryan — 25%
Tyler — 84%
Jared — 33%

The odds will go higher if they get C.C., might go slightly lower if they don’t get any pitcher. — Bryan

 

The Brewers will win the division in 2009.

33.75%

Joe — 40%
Bryan — 25%
Tyler — 50%
Jared — 20%

I think the major competition will be the Cubs, and I don’t see them regressing from this year. The Astros and Cardinals always seem to be very solid and the Reds aren’t far off either. — Joe

 

The Brewers will win the World Series in 2009.

8.75%

Joe — 5%
Bryan — 8%
Tyler — 18%
Jared — 4%

Pitching and defense wins championships in baseball. The Brewers have average defense and will work to fill holes in their bullpen. It’s the loss of Sabathia and Sheets that will likely be too much to overcome. The team should be competitive in 2008 and Melvin might be aggressive this offseason, but I think 2009 will be used to reload. If the Brewers can usher in some of their top prospects and rebuild their rotation, 2010 might be the year you could make some money on the Brewers through sports betting. — Jared

 

Conclusion

So, there you go. Even though these rumors dominate the blogosphere, as a group we feel there is a coin flip chance at best of any of them happening and most are far less likely than that in our eyes. But we’re just four Brewer fan degenerates pretending we can get into Doug Melvin’s mind. What do you think the Brewers will do?

No matter what happens, it should be an interesting offseason.

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4 Responses to “RFB at Odds”

  1. Tyler Says:

    I actually voted negative 80 percent chance the Brewers trade Weeks. But, realisticall, there’s a zero percent chance in my eyes.

  2. Jared Says:

    Since negative 80 percent makes absolutely no sense, I assumed you meant 20 percent. I’ll change it to zero.

  3. Tyler Says:

    It makes sense when indicating an emphatic no way on Earth. Knowing you were going to average out percents, I would have just put zero.

  4. Joe Says:

    I guess I find it much more likely that the Brewers trade this offseason. I’ll be shocked if Weeks, Hardy, and Fielder are all Brewers come the beginning of the 2009 season.

    By the way, is Johnny Rivers alive?