Jake Peavy for JJ Hardy?
Tuesday, March 31st, 2009As mentioned in the news yesterday, rumors (quite possibly unfounded) have surfaced about a package including SS JJ Hardy heading to the San Diego Padres for SP and Team USA ace Jake Peavy. Let’s take some of the complication out of valuing this hypothetical deal and just look at a straight up Hardy for Peavy swap.
First, let’s take a look at this deal from a win-now, 2009 or bust perspective. Taking a look at the last 3 years, Peavy’s line is tremendous.
JAKE PEAVY 2006-2008
2006 202.1 IP, 11-14, 4.09 ERA, 9.56 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.51 FIP, 4.0 WAR
2007 223.1 IP, 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.84 FIP, 6.2 WAR
2008 173.2 IP, 10-11, 2.85 ERA, 8.60 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 3.60 FIP, 2.8 WAR
Peavy has consistently shown the ability to get batters out, posting high K rates and a very good K/BB ratio. It’s important to keep in mind that every number here (except for WAR) is not park-adjusted for the pitcher-friendly confines of PETCO park. PETCO has even been found to have a very pitcher-friendly park factor for K’s and BB’s, but regardless, Peavy’s numbers are impressive. The thing that worries me is the sharp jump in BB rate in 2008, combined with a full strikeout lower K rate. Perhaps it’s an outlier, but as a prospective buyer, it is cause for concern. Let’s take a look at some projections.
JAKE PEAVY 2009
CHONE : 3.31 ERA, 8.90 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 3.40 FIP
PECOTA: 3.17 ERA, 8.78 K/9Â 2.88 BB/9, 3.44 FIP
ZIPSÂ : 3.23 ERA, 9.29 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 3.41 FIP
MARCEL: 3.22 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 3.38 FIP
The 4 projection systems seem to agree that Peavy will not repeat his insanely good 2007, which saw a great K/BB combined with a low HR rate. 3 of the 4 agree that the jump in BB rate is at least partially real, while ZiPS sees a return to 06 and 07 levels. PECOTA and CHONE see the drop in K rate as real as well. Either way, Peavy retains a lot of value, but something more like 2006 as opposed to 2007 should be expected, so I would expect a 3.5-4.5 win season for Peavy, even in a neutral park like Miller Park (slightly pitcher friendly).
JJ Hardy put together a great season for the Brewers last year, flashing the leather repeatedly while putting up one of the top hitting lines among SS in the NL. Here are Hardy’s numbers from 2007/2008 (2006 was injury shortened).
JJ HARDY 2007-2008
2007: 638 PA, .277 AVG, 26 HR, 80 RBI, .323 OBP, .463 SLG, +3.5 BRAA*, +15 UZR, 4.5 WAR
2008: 629 PA, .283 AVG, 24 HR, 74 RBI, .343 OBP, .478 SLG, +13.5 BRAA, +8 UZR, 4.9 WAR
*BATTING RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE
These are two great, all-star caliber seasons. Hardy’s value comes from putting plus batting together with plus defense at a premium position. Assuming Hardy’s defense stays in the +5 to +15 range (in a mere 35 game campaign in 2006, Hardy put up a +6 UZR, which over 150 games would equate to a +33 season), he only has to be a league average hitter to be a 3 WAR or better player (3.5 WAR last year: Justin Morneau. 3.0 WAR last year: Miguel Cabrera). Let’s look at Hardy’s offensive projections.
JJ HARDY 2009
CHONE : .278 AVG, .343 OBP, .463 SLG, +11 BRAA
PECOTA: .284 AVG, .344 OBP, .459 SLG, +10.5 BRAA
ZIPSÂ : .277 AVG, .337 OBP. .479 SLG, +11.5 BRAA
MARCEL: .267 AVG, .336 OBP, .459 SLG, +6 BRAA
Marcel unfairly judges Hardy based on his injury shortened 2006 season, so we can basically throw it out and focus on the 3 projection systems which are in alomst complete agreement on Hardy’s value - he’ll be worth somewhere in the +8-+13 range with the bat. Combine that with his +5-+15 defensive range, and you have a player that is worth 3.3-4.8 wins. So this year, the difference between Hardy and Peavy is basically a wash.
However, the deciding factor with this trade is its effect on the future. Clearly, the Brewers pitching staff is a little weak right now. However, with Gallardo, Parra, and Bush, the Brewers have a solid base that will be in place for at least the 2009 and 2010 seasons and be quite affordable, as they are all still in their cost-controlled years. JJ Hardy is also still in the cost-controlled stage, as he still has one arbitration year left.
The 28-year-old Peavy is due a relatively cheap 8 million dollars in 2009. After this year, a contract extension for 3 years and 52 million kicks in. Here’s what we’re looking at as far as cost in this trade.
MILWAUKEE GIVES
J.J Hardy 2008 (Age 26, 4.65M) and 2009 (Age 27, likely in the 7M-10M range, depending on the market).
Money Due: 12-15M
Expected Worth: 30-45M*
Expected Value: 18-30M
*Range roughly based on CHONE projections, including any expected decline.
MILWAUKEE ACCEPTS
Jake Peavy 2009 (Age 28, 8M), 2010 (Age 29, 15M), 2011 (Age 30, 16M), 2012 (Age 31, 17M), 2013 (Age 32, 22M or 4M buyout)
Money Due: 60M (buyout of 2012), 78M (including 2012)
Expected Worth: 56-66M (buyout of 2012), 70-80M (including 2013)*
Expected Value: (-4)-6M (buyout of 2012), (-8)-2M (including 2013)
*Range roughly based on CHONE projections, including any expected decline.
This analysis suggests that 2 years of cost-controlled Hardy are approximately worth 20-30M more than 5 years of an expensive Jake Peavy. The problem here is that Peavy will likely decline over the course of this contract and is leaving a pitcher friendly environment. At this point, Hardy is already worth about as much as Peavy, and is entering his peak years. It should be obvious that this isn’t a good deal for the Brewers. The fact that the Brewers would also be expected throw in prospects just puts this deal completely out of the question for me. The Padres would almost certainly have to throw in a top hitting prospect at a premium position (CF, 3B, 2B) to make this trade work in the Brewers favor or even be properly balanced. Hopefully all rumors on this front are false, as Doug Melvin has suggested over the previous week.
Prior year stats/CHONE/ZIPS/MARCEL projections from www.fangraphs.com
PECOTA projections from www.baseballprospectus.com
Contract data from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com