With Chris Capuano set to come off the DL any day and Yovani Gallardo pitching well, the Brewers have a tough decision to make regarding roster spots.
It's fair to say that Gallardo has earned a spot with his two starts, but that's not always the way it works. It's important for young pitchers to not go much more than 25 to 30 innings over their previous career highs. Gallardo would all but certainly go over that number if he started the rest of the season, especially if the Brewers need him in the playoffs. Since he has pitched so well, it's hard to send him back to Nashville, but we don't want him to turn into next year's Jered Weaver, who missed time late last season and over two stints already this season with injuries after going far over his career-high in innings in 2006. I just hope the higher-ups have a plan in place. Since I love his stuff and what he brings to the team, I'd propose using him as the fifth starter and skipping him when the team has an off day. He could pitch a couple innings out of the pen if needed in those cases too.
If Gallardo stays on the team and Capuano comes back up, some more roster shifting will have to take place. As has been discussed in past posts, Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan have their spots locked up. Capuano is also all but assured a spot in the starting rotation due more to the fact that he is the only lefty starter the Brewers own than to how well he's been pitching. That leaves Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas fighting for a spot in the rotation. I've already made it clear that I think Vargas is better suited for the bullpen than Bush in previous posts. The fact that Bush has simply been pitching better than Vargas lately makes it an even easier decision in my mind.
We know what Vargas is: A low-end starter who will not go more than six innings (and usually will fall short of that mark) while posting a high 4 or low 5 ERA. He's done it for four seasons before this one in the big leagues, while never hitting 200 innings and posting his best ERA (4.34) in his first major league season in 2003. His 4.01 ERA and 6-1 record this year will most likely end up much closer to his career averages by the end of the year (and his ERA has already begun creeping up). Right now he's a pitcher that is a burden on the bullpen since he can't go deep into the game, but with his propensity to get out of jams, he could be a help to a struggling bullpen.
Dave Bush simply has more upside than Vargas. Last season was his first as a full-time starter and second serving mainly as a starter. He posted a 4.41 ERA (better than all but Vargas' first season) while leading Brewers pitchers in wins with a 12-11 record in 2006. His 166 strikeouts were good enough for 25th in MLB, tied with Houston ace Roy Oswalt. Bush was also an innings hog, going 210 innings. He had three complete games in 2006 while Vargas has zero career complete games. Yes, he has struggled this season, but he has thrown two straight quality starts and three out of five. Bush is tied with Vargas with six quality starts on the year. Bush's ERA will continue to come down (it's dropped a half run over his last two starts alone) and he will start to collect more wins. As he continues to develop as a MLB starter, he will prove to be a much more valuable hurler than Vargas.
If the Brewers shift Vargas to the pen, someone has to go. The decision will probably come down to Chris Spurling or Jose Capellan. Since Brian Shouse is a lefty, he's pretty safe. Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise and Carlos Villanueva's jobs also seem safe. Spurling has a decent ERA, but has given up runs in key situations and seems to get hit hard. Capellan has a better upside, but has also been unreliable. Vargas could fill either of their roles as a middle relief man who can go long. I would send Spurling down, especially since Capellan has not really had an opportunity to prove himself since he's only pitched 11 innings so far this season.
That leaves Villanueva in the pen for now. As I've said before, he deserves a spot in the rotation. But I'm not sure the team should shift two guys out of the rotation at once and Villanueva is valuable to the bullpen, which has been the Brewers' biggest weakness. Injuries are inevitable and Villanueva will get his shot at starting again. He could be the Brewers third best starter right now (behind Sheets and Gallardo) so it'll be hard to hold him down long. Bush should get two more starts before the all-star break. If he pitches poorly, the Brewers could shuffle the rotation at the break and come out with Villanueva starting and Bush joining Vargas in the pen.
In the end, having seven viable big league starters is a great problem to have and as the trade deadline looms, the Brewers should look to use that to their advantage. Vargas could be a valuable piece to a trade that could perhaps bolster the Brewers' bullpen or possibly bring in a full-time starting left fielder (though one or two other outfielders would also have to go in that scenario).
So, there it is: Cappy placed back in the rotation, Gallardo stays up and Vargas is sent to the pen. Since it took approximately four hours for the Brewers to do the exact opposite of what I suggested the last time I made a long, involved post, I expect to see Bush in the bullpen later tonight...
