The Halladay Special
A couple days ago, I said the signs coming from the Brewers front office indicated the flirtation with the Blue Jays front office regarding Roy Halladay appeared to be more than just a passing interest (POST). Today, it looks like I was right. Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman has reported that the Brewers are a “serious threat” to get Toronto’s ace in a trade.
He went on to call the Brewers a “serious player” and stated they were “aggressive” in their pursuit of the talented righty. Heyman even quoted one “Brewers person” (wow, that’s vague…) as saying, “We’re going to be aggressive,” and spoke with two executives from other teams that said GM Doug Melvin has what it takes to get a deal done.
The part of the article that stuck out to me though is that Heyman seems to believe lefty starter Manny Parra would be part of any swap between the clubs. I just can’t see that happening.
First of all, the Brewers are considering a trade for Halladay because of their dreadful starting pitching depth. Including Parra in the trade would improve the front end of the rotation significantly, but they’d still have to start Mike Burns or another replacement pitcher until Dave Bush, who is still weeks away from returning, comes back from injury. The effect would almost be a wash. The team would likely win most of the games Halladay starts and lose most of the games their fifth pitcher starts. Even with Halladay, the Brewers would have to bank on Parra and his recent improvements to help them make the postseason. They can’t deal him away.
Secondly, looking beyond this season, Parra is a 26-year-old starter that the Brewers control for something like five more seasons. Yes, he’s struggled at times, but the reason Brewers fans have been so frustrated with his production is we can all see how much raw talent he has. His ceiling is at least a #2 pitcher, perhaps higher. It’s no shock he’s appealing to the Blue Jays despite his struggles. But the Brewers are starved for pitching in the majors and have very little in the way of pitching in the higher levels of the minors. Can they really afford to deal a young starter that’s already contributing on the big-league team? I just don’t see it happening…
When you consider the other names Heyman mentioned as trade targets for the Blue Jays in the article — prospects Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Brett Lawrie — the trade just becomes too much to stomach. One of those three top prospects as part of a package would be one thing (though I’ve mentioned that I don’t see a scenario where the Brewers deal Escobar), but one of those prospects along with Parra and probably even more? It might not be out of line for the Blue Jays to ask for that, but I can’t imagine that fitting into the Brewers’ plans.
Meanwhile, as these Parra rumors surface, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi continues to say a deal for Halladay is unlikely, but don’t be fooled. Halladay will be on another team by the end of the month. His value is as high as it will ever be and the organization cannot put the team and the player through this grueling process again. When it comes down to crunch time as the trade deadline approaches, the Blue Jays will have to accept the best deal and move on.
Ricciardi said today that four teams are “serious” in competing for Halladay. Rumored teams include the Brewers, Phillies, Cardinals, Angels and Dodgers. The most mentioned destination, Philadelphia, might actually be losing steam as the Phillies are rumored to have moved on after not being open to including top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek in a trade. The Cardinals probably don’t have the prospects to finish a deal. And the Angels and Dodgers seem more like they’re just poking around than serious at this point. That leaves the Brewers. But are they a match?
Halladay would be an outstanding addition for the Brewers and one that could help them this season and next. The Brewers have some nice prospects they could package in a deal that would benefit both sides and the team might even be willing to include shortstop J.J. Hardy if the Blue Jays are interested in him. But if I were Melvin, I’d leave Parra off the table. If the Blue Jays won’t pull the trigger on a deal without him, move on. Halladay isn’t the only arm out there.
Tags: Blue Jays, Manny Parra, Roy Halladay, Trade Deadline
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:12 am
why is nobody considering cliff lee? hes on an even worse team and an even more desperate team to get back to what they used to be a couple of years ago. they’ve already traded mark derosa and have said that they would be willing to trade lee. he isn’t roy halladay, but he did win the cy young award last year.
July 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 am
The Brewers are scouting Lee. They were at his last start in Toronto.
If Parra is part of the deal, I’m completely against it. Yeah, he’s been terrible this year with the exception of his last two starts, but I still think he’s going to be a solid number 2 starter. We’ll wait and see. The next eight days will be sexciting.
July 23rd, 2009 at 8:33 am
I have always been a fan of trading JJ Hardy with a couple of prospects for Doc. Keep Escobar and Lawrie out of it though. Gamel doesn’t trip my trigger. Although he’s a young pup who has the whole word in front of him…(sniff sniff).
July 23rd, 2009 at 9:27 am
Joe-
Yeah… Parra being involved really changes it for me. I’d honestly rather they go after a lesser arm that can be had with just prospects than give up Manny.
Scootage-
Please don’t trade Lawrie. He may be a Braunian fratdouche… But he can really hit. And I sincerely think he’ll be playing 3rd or 2nd in a couple of years for the big league club.
July 23rd, 2009 at 9:33 am
Is anybody worried about two straight seasons of dealing top prospects from a team that was built from the inside? Halladay is of course a huge addition for any team that can get him, but at what cost? Is the farm system that deep, or is Milwaukee suddenly a big market team that can spend its way to October in years to come?
July 23rd, 2009 at 9:55 am
I’m worried.
Pretty darn worried.
Part of me wants to go all regressionist, have the team just sit pat with what they have, and ride it out. We don’t know what could happen. And honestly, some of those lower prospects could be the the key to this team being good long-term. I really don’t want another 92-2005/6 stretch, personally.
But someone like gamel, or Salome… there are guys, nearly as highly regarded, right behind them. That, i could give up.
July 23rd, 2009 at 10:01 am
I’m pretty much w/ D’Amico. I’d be okay w/ Gamel, Salome, Hardy, etc, bt I don’t want Parra or Escobar involved.
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:12 pm
D’Amico’s one good year: No No, I said/meant that Lawrie and Escobar should be kept out of all trade talks. Gamel is the one I’m not convinced with. Lawrie is going to be in the Bigs by 2011.
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Scootage- Yea, i realized after i posted it that my response to you was poorly constructed. I really just meant to agree with you.
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Lawrie needs a true position before he’s in the bigs… I go to a lot of T-rats games (i’ll be there tonight, actually) and while he has the raw athletic ability… He’s not a second baseman.
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:42 pm
D’Amico,
I’ll be at the T-rats game tonight too. Where do you usually sit? I’ll shoot you a text after we’re inside.
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:49 pm
We’ll be in the grass tonight, as it wasn’t part of our ticket package but we both really want to go. I look forward to seeing ya, and hopefully Fredrickson throws a bit more heat than the last time i saw him. Plus… Peralta tonight. And that Fatse kid is playing all over the field… I like him.
July 23rd, 2009 at 1:44 pm
would you rather give up a bunch for a Halliday or Lee type or a less for a Washburn or Beddard type of pitcher? I’d rather go after the lower types and keep our younger prospects. Just stay away from the Penny’s of the league.
July 23rd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
I’d rather give up JJ and/or Hart or two mid-level prospects for a Beddard or Washburn than burn up 3-4 really good prospects (and/or Manny) for Halladay. Halladay is darn good, but… I don’t want to suck in 3 years. I think we should aim for consistent competitiveness instead of a blow-it-all deal for one aging pitcher.