Halladay’s Trade Value
As is often the case in trade speculation, there is a wide range of opinions on what Roy Halladay is actually worth on the trade market. His perceived value — in the media, amongst fans and on blogs — ranges from obscenely slanted in favor of the Blue Jays (any five players in any minor-league system) to ridiculously weighted in favor of whatever team the Blue Jays trade him to (salary dump for marginal prospects). Obviously, the truth is somewhere closer to the first suggestion, but I still feel Halladay’s perceived value is skewed way too high in general right now.
Luckily, Halladay wouldn’t be the first ace to be dealt in the past few seasons. We have precedence to go on. Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Dan Haren and Erik Bedard all have ace-like numbers and have been dealt in recent seasons. Let’s analyze those trades on the surface and see if we can come up with any conclusions.
Johan Santana
The Mets sent four players to the Twins — their #2, 3, 4 and 7 prospects, according to Baseball America.
Santana was younger than Halladay at the time of the trade, has better numbers than Halladay and the Twins offered the Mets a window of time to sign Santana to an extension. The Jays will not do that with any Halladay trade. So, the Blue Jays should get slightly less value in a trade of Halladay than the Twins got for Santana.
C.C. Sabathia
The Brewers sent four players, including their #1 prospect, according to Baseball America, to the Indians. Michael Brantley, a highly regarded AA outfielder at the time, likely would have been in the Brewers’ top 10 this year if he was still in the system and he was ranked #9 in the Indians system. Rob Bryson was a lower level prospect and Zack Jackson was a failed prospect.
Sabathia was younger than Halladay and as good of a pitcher as him, but was just a half-season rental in this trade. The Blue Jays should get more for Halladay than the Brewers paid for Sabathia.
Jake Peavy
Peavy nixed the trade, but the White Sox were prepared to send their #2 and 3 prospects, according to Baseball America, and two players to be named later to the Padres in a deal for the San Diego pitcher.
Peavy is younger and has very similar numbers to Halladay. He is signed to a reasonable deal through 2012 with a 2013 option so any team that would trade for him would be getting him for a handful of years. That increases his trade value to some degree, but the financial risk involved is also greater. I think the Blue Jays should expect a similar return on Halladay to this nixed deal.
Dan Haren
The Oakland As received six players, including their #1, 3, 7 and 8 prospects, according to Baseball America, for Haren.
Haren was younger than Halladay, had similar numbers and was signed to a low-cost deal for three years. The Blue Jays should not expect as much as the Diamondbacks paid for Haren if they trade Halladay.
Erik Bedard
The Orioles got five players, including former Mariners #1 prospect Adam Jones (he was entering his second year in the majors at the time) and their #3 prospect, according to Baseball America. The Orioles also received a nice MLB relief pitcher, George Sherrill, and two other minor leaguers.
The Mariners got Bedard for two full seasons. The pitcher was younger than Halladay and had great numbers in 2007, but was less proven and more of an injury risk. The Blue Jays could probably expect a similar return on Halladay.
What Have We Learned?
First of all, this all very subjective since prospect rankings within individual systems depend on how good that minor-league system is, but it can at least give us a general idea of what Halladay is worth.
Based on recent trades of aces, it looks as though the Blue Jays should be able to reasonably expect to get two top 5 prospects, another prospect in the top 10 range and one additional player for Halladay.
What Could the Brewers Offer?
I made a post yesterday about the possibility of including shortstop J.J. Hardy in a trade with the Blue Jays. The tough thing there is it’s hard to peg down what Hardy’s value would be to the Jays or if they would even be interested in him. They definitely need a shortstop of the future, but Hardy is only a season and a half away from free agency. If the Jays thought he could be the answer at the position for them, they could trade for him and hope to work out a long-term deal before he reached free agency. With so many ifs in that scenario though, I’ll go with a simpler proposal for now.
The Brewers could offer third baseman Mat Gamel (the Brewers #1 prospect according to Baseball America), catcher Angel Salome (#5), pitcher Zach Braddock and one additional prospect.
The Brewers could afford to deal Gamel because they have another highly regarded third base prospect, Taylor Green, climbing up the system. Likewise, the Brewers could trade Salome because catcher Jonathan Lucroy is a level behind but equal or ahead of Salome in prospect rankings. Lefty Zach Braddock is having a breakout season this year and has moved up to AA. He was not listed on the BA top 10 before the season, but would likely be near the bottom of the top 10 if they redid the rankings now. In fact, Braddock is the Brewers #7 prospect, according to the most recent BrewerFan.net Power 50. The final prospect would probably someone in the #10-20 range in terms of prospect rankings. A high-ceiling pitcher like Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, Evan Anundsen or Jake Odorizzi would probably fit the bill.
So, What Do You Think?
Should the Brewers offer a deal of something like Gamel/Salome/Braddock/Odorizzi for Halladay?
The Brewers are in a unique position where the top two prospects in that proposal would have other highly regarded prospects at their positions that could move up the totem pole behind them if they were to be dealt. It would make the deal’s blow to the minor-league system a bit easier to take, in that regard anyway.
However, it would hurt to lose the pitching prospects since the Brewers’ minor-league system is starving for pitching at the higher levels and the Brewers hope those players will develop into big-league arms in the coming seasons.
The addition of Halladay would be a huge boost to the team though. The starting rotation is the clear weak spot and an upgrade is necessary if the team is expected to make the playoffs this season. A top two of Halladay and Gallardo would be imposing in regular season match-ups and even more so in a post-season series. The money Halladay is due would certainly be an issue as it would put major constraints on an already tight budget for this season and next, but if the front office can make it work, it’d certainly help set up this team for success. Furthermore, the NL Central and the NL as a whole are pretty weak this season so any boost, and especially an addition as good as Halladay, could mean a big difference in how far the team can go.
Since the Brewers would have Halladay again next season, it would set up well with the window this team has to compete. Many of the key young players will reach free agency years by 2011 or 2012, meaning the Brewers will have some tough decisions to make in regards to contracts and who should be traded to restock the minor-league system by the time those seasons roll around. Realistically, 2009 and 2010 are probably the last years this core group will be together.
The more I think about a move like this, the more I support it. I’m usually not in favor of gutting a minor-league system, but the circumstances seem to be right in this case for the Brewers to make an aggressive push for the postseason.
If you were the Brewers GM, would you offer Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Zach Braddock and Jake Odorizzi for a season and a half of Roy Halladay?
Tags: Angel Salome, Blue Jays, Jake Odorizzi, Mat Gamel, Roy Halladay, Trade Deadline, Zach Braddock
July 21st, 2009 at 7:24 pm
I’d do it in a heartbeat…
Heck, throw in another arm. Efrain Nieves or Evan Fredrickson. 3 good young pitchers and two guys that currently have no place on the big league roster (though i think Gamel should be the everyday starting third baseman, but that’s just me) with what amounts to immediate replacements in the system (and if Green doesn’t work out I still can see Lawrie at third).
I like it.
Then trade JJ for another arm. Call the O’s!
July 21st, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Additionally, if they do get Halladay, they should bring back the powder blue unis to replace the pinstripes on fridays.
July 21st, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Just as long as the Brewers don’t have to give up Peralta or Scarpetta, right? Ha… I’d hate to see either of those guys go too. They’re fun to watch.
Do you know when Peralta is pitching next? I might try to get to a game tomorrow or Thursday, especially if he’s pitching.
July 21st, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Honestly, I’d give them both up for two and a half years of a healthy Roy Halladay.
But it would be sad to see them go. They are filthy… But by the time they’re ready this team will be very different. And I’d hate to see this wasted (even if they’re playing like a warm bucket of slop lately.)
July 21st, 2009 at 7:45 pm
The more I say I don’t want Cap’n Craig playing 3rd, the better he plays.
I HATE YOU, Craig! (Maybe that’ll get a homer)
July 21st, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Actually, it would only be 1.5 years of Halladay though.
July 21st, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Doh!
That’s what i meant to type.
Still.
I’d give them up for that. Halladay may be over-rated by mister Branden from last night, but he is excellent. And if the tailing-off-at-age 33 thing happens with Halladay, you’re pretty much off the hook. And as much as I like the arms in Appleton, they’re not so far along that we’d be losing out on them in that year and a half window.(There are times this year that i think that the big league team would be better served with them in the rotation/bullpen than with Mike Burns or ((lately)) Chuck Vee. I know better, of course, but i still wonder.)
July 21st, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Ha, I know what you mean. Their stuff is nasty, especially Peralta’s.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Peralta is piggybacking Fredrickson on thurday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scarpetta on one of the other days in relief.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:21 pm
I think that no matter who the Brewers land, J.J. Hardy is gone. Watching the game tonight, J.J. acted like it was one of the last time he’d see Ed Sedar at first base, slapping him on the head. I don’t pretend to know how these trade things work, but if they ever inform you in advance of an impending trade deal, it seems Hardy is aware of something.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Dave-
I agree.
No matter what happens with Halladay… JJ is gone. Soon. The front office is ready for Escobar, and i still think that someone who gets on base a good clip is move valuable than a guy that hits 20 homers a year.
Pretty good article on CNNSI.com today about the best and worst defensive players at their position. They call Prince the worst defensive first baseman in the league based on UZR, and say that Cameron and Kendall deserved gold gloves last year.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Man, Brewers Live is Dildos. They just had Jerryatric Augustine on screen… with the green screen behind him. You’d think that they could build an actual set. Not that expensive.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:45 pm
I still think it’s pretty unlikely Hardy gets traded midseason. It’s not impossible, but it’s pretty rare for a regular starter to get traded in the middle of the season if the team is competitive. It would take a special situation.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:50 pm
True. Offseason, though… In honor of the late Chuckie Hacks- K Bye.
July 21st, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Jared,
I think it is a special situation to an extent. Are they a competitive team? Yes, definitely, but are they a playoff team in this division? I really want to say yes, but it’s questionable right now especially with a struggling offense. While I think you’re right that it would be unusual, Hardy seems to be the obvious choice to dump.
I wish they could dump Bill Hall, too.
July 21st, 2009 at 11:37 pm
[...] http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/?p=5535 [...]
July 22nd, 2009 at 12:50 am
Is there anyone who doesn’t wish they would dump Bill Hall? Maybe Dusty Baker would trade for him? He’s getting older and isn’t very good, so I should think that would be right up his alley.
If this was the deal for Halladay, I’d say yes in a heartbeat. Come on Doug, bring home the (canadian) bacon!
July 22nd, 2009 at 11:10 am
If this trade would guarantee Halladay as a Brewer for 1.5 years, I’d do it, but wouldn’t he have the right to demand a trade after this season per his contract? If that were to happen, the Brewers would be handcuffed to lesser players in any trade because other teams know that draft picks aren’t what the Crew needs right now.
July 22nd, 2009 at 11:52 am
Sup on my balls, Jeff Suppan.
goddamnit.
July 22nd, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Guh.
Bad bad bad bad bad Brewers baseball.
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Thank you Braun for not grounding into a double play with the bases loaded.
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:21 pm
I love when I step away from my computer for a little bit and come back to see a 5-spot in an inning for the Crew.
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Ladies and Gentlemen…We have a Bill Hall sighting.
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:37 pm
McHung another one…
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Then again, I hate when the team leaves McClung in to bat with a runner on base for some reason and he goes out to give up two runs the next inning…
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Guh.
If we trade for Halladay, can we get some help in the long-relief department?
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
SI’s Jon Heyman says he’s hearing the Brewers are aggressive after Halladay and look like a threat to get him with Parra as part of a deal.
Also, it’s being reported that the Phillies are dropping out of the bidding for Halladay.
Could the Brewers actually get the best pitcher available via trade two years in a row?
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Gamel/Parra/Salome/Odorizzi for Halladay
Would you do it? Think they could pick up a reliever in that deal? Or maybe expand it to get Rolen to play third?
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Wow.
That’s a lot to give up. And yet, not a lot. I still really like Manny. He’s got the stuff, and with proper instruction and coaching will be damn good.
I’d love to see them grab Rolen, too… Man, this is getting exciting.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:00 pm
It’s probably still a longshot, but it’s at least a possibility.
I really don’t want to give up Parra, especially since they would still really need another starter if they did that, but it’d be hard to pass up Halladay.
The Rolen thing was just pure speculation by me, but it makes sense. The Blue Jays are in selling mode, the Brewers tried to get him before last season and he would fill a need.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
I’d hate to see them get rid of Manny too. If that happens, I’d really hope they could pull in Rolen or a reliever. Actually, no matter what the Crew gives up I’m a little worried about giving up so much potential future on one man. But I agree, it’s definitely exciting to be on this side of the trade talks.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
But I guess that kind of deal worked out pretty well for us last year.. Well, in Melvin We Trust, right?
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Yeah…
When i was younger, I hated, HATED Scott Rolen (he won Gold Gloves because of his power, taking them from Cirillo. Have I mentioned that i’m a Jeff Cirillo fan? Yeah? Ok.) with a passion that carried on for years. But i’d love for the Brewers to grab him with Halladay for a couple of extra prospects. Many people have pointed out that NOW is the time for the Crew to make a run.
I really, really agree with you about Parra. It’s one thing to trade a double-a/single-a arm… It’s a entirely different thing to trade a guy that, while he’s struggled, has been a very competent young power lefty. That’s a NICE commodity. Not Halladay nice, but… I still see him as a very solid #2….
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Yes, I suppose. Don’t bash the ’stache, i guess.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:28 pm
I suppose if Doug was running this organization like a fantasy baseball team, we could suggest he go out and get Halladay and Rolen for Parra, Gamel and prospects and then turn around and deal Hardy to Seattle for Bedard and Washburn (like that Mariners blog suggested last week).
How’s this rotation look? Halladay, Gallardo, Bedard, Washburn and Looper
And this batting order? Lopez, Rolen, Braun, Fielder, Cameron, Hart, Escobar, Kendall, pitcher
Of course, that would leave Bush and Suppan out of the rotation… And an untested rookie at shortstop. And it’s completely ridiculous to think the Brewers would be able to pull off two huge moves like that.
But it’s fun to dream…
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:30 pm
And, of course, those deals would severely jeopardize the future success of the team, but that’d be one hell of a way to “go for it.”
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Yeah.
But it doesn’t matter when you blow 2 out of 3 to the Pirates.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:46 pm
And the current success is jeopardized by not being able to get a guy in from third with one out in the 9th of a tied ballgame. Damn.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Yup.
I hope that some day Braun loses his weakness to sliders that are low and outside. But.. I doubt it. And I can’t grouse too much- he played well today. But COME ON! Cam hits a triple and no one can put the ball in the air?
July 22nd, 2009 at 3:07 pm
I think i might be too much of a Brewers fan.
When the Packers lose… It pretty much ruins the next day or so. Bad start to the week.
I get the same feeling when the brewers lose, especially a game like this, against a team like THAT.
July 22nd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Sup au Merde… Today’s special.
July 26th, 2009 at 6:13 am
Fly Fishing The Solitude: Montana…
As is often the case in trade speculation there is a wide range of opinions on what Roy Halladay is [...]…